Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Brandon Crawford's Unexpected Road to Success

Brandon Crawford was raised to be a San Francisco Giant. Growing up in Pleasanton, California in a family that had Giants' season tickets. Crawford's five-year-old face has already entrenched itself in the memory of Giants' fans, seeing him next to a "Mr. White. Do what's right! Keep the Giants in SF" sign." Who would have guessed in 1992, that five-year-old boy would play a key role in a the Giants' dynasty 22 years later.



Crawford entered the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft as a junior out of UCLA. He was praised by scouts for his glove and range at shortstop, but there were concerns over his bat.

In 2009, many of those concerns seemed very legitimate as Crawford's slash line from 2009-'11 in the minor leagues left plenty to be desired. In 2009 between A+ and Double-A, Crawford combined for a solid, unspectacular .282/.328/.366 line. He spent most of the 2010 season again in Double-A, but his slash line fell to .241/.337/.375.

After breaking his finger in spring training, Crawford missed six weeks before spending a few weeks getting back into form at Single-A. After he was ready to go, Crawford made it to Triple-A, playing in 29 games but struggled with the improved pitching. Despite a .234/.291/.327 slash line, the Giants were desperate for infield depth after Mike Fontenot's groin injury. Crawford was called up on May 26 and made his debut. In his third at bat, Crawford's first major-league hit was a grand slam.




It was the highlight of Crawford's rookie season, he remained with the Giants for 66 games in 2011 with a .204/.286/.296 slash line. But while the bat remained at a Double-A level, Crawford showed off his wizardry at short stop. Finishing with a 5.0 defensive WAR in just 66 games and locking up the starting gig at shortstop for the foreseeable future.

Over the past three seasons, Crawford's batting average has hung around .260, but his on-base percentage and slugging percentage have steadily improved. From a .653 OPS in 2012, climbing to .674 in 2013 and .713 last season.  His offensive WAR steadily improved from -10.7 in 2012, -5.7 in 2013 and jumping to 3.2. While his offensive numbers were still seen as average, they were more than acceptable from a shortstop that  is fourth amongst shortstop in defensive runs saved over the past three seasons.

We have seen Crawford steadily improve at the plate, especially versus left-handed pitchers. Entering 2014, the left-handed Crawford had just finished a season with a .199/.258/.288 slash line with three home runs versus lefties in 146 at bats. While it was a drop from the .254/.306/.325 line the year before, it was clear he was struggling to pick up the pitches from lefties. But that all changed last season, he became a nightmare for left-handed pitchers.

If you saw the Giants were facing a lefty, you knew there was a good probability that Crawford was going to have a big game. In 153 at bats, he hit .320 off lefties with an on-base percentage near .400 and an OPS at nearly .880. After two seasons in the bigs, Crawford learned how to pick up pitches from left-handed pitchers and we saw his approach and vision at the plate improve. He drew a career-high 20 walks vs. LHP and was generating more power with his swings, resulting in more extra base hits and home runs.

While he killed lefties, he took a step back versus right-handed pitchers, seeing his average drop from .269/.333/.394 in 2013 to .213/.291/.346 last season. Crawford just couldn't make contact, striking out in nearly 27 percent of his at bats versus righties. After striking out just 96 times total in 550 AB's the previous season, Crawford struck out 90 times versus righties alone in 338 at bats. Needless to say, there were plenty of positives from his 2014 season, but the same doubts about his ability to be a consistent hitter remained.

That was until this season – Crawford has not only turned into a capable all-around shortstop, but a serious candidate to start in the All Star Game. It was unexpected to say the least, with Crawford's OPS+ jumping from a career-high 106 last season to 150 this year. That mark is not only the highest among all shortstops, but is also the eighth highest in the league.

Crawford sits atop N.L. shortstops in triples (two), RBI's (31), OBP (.373), WAR (2.3) and is second in runs scored (25) and home runs (six) and third in walks (15). When you pair that with his defense, ranking third in range factor (4.79) and second in dWAR (0.9), the numbers to represent the National League in the 2015 All Star Game are clear as day.

It's better to save ranting about the current All Star voting system and how Major League Baseball has given fans far too much power. Bonuses and future earnings are influenced by All Star accolades, but fans just vote for their team's player, even if he isn't having the best season.

So let's look at why Crawford is having an All Star-caliber season. Even the most optimistic projections for Crawford never saw him hitting at this level or remotely close to it. The first number you go to is his batting average on balls in play (BAbip), which can be found on Baseball Reference. In two of the past three seasons (2012 and '14), Crawford's BAbip sat at .307, while it was .290 in '13. This season Crawford's BAbip has jumped up to .342, so there is luck involved.

But Crawford has improved at the plate, he has shortened his swing and a quicker, straight swing leads to better contact. He has learned the art of selecting his pitches and making great contact. What makes his numbers even more impressive is that he is doing it from the sixth spot in the Giants' lineup. Without any protection behind him, Crawford still drives in the likes of Angel Pagan, Buster Posey and Hunter Pence.

While Pablo Sandoval may be gone, the Giants aren't missing his production much thanks to the emergence of Crawford. While he won't be seeing his name on Most Valuable Player ballots, he has a great case for Most Improved Player and All Star starting shortstop.

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